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Why Do Biases Exist in the First Place? April 17, 2014

Posted by Peter Varhol in Software development, Strategy.
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If we are biased in our analysis of situations and our decisions in those situations, something must have precipitated that bias. As I mentioned in my last post, it is often because we use Kahneman’s System 1, or “fast” thinking, when we should really use the more deliberate System 2 thinking.

But, of course, System 2 thinking requires conscious engagement, which we are reluctant to do for situations that we think we’ve seen before. It simply requires too much effort, and we think we can comprehend and decide based on other experiences. It should come as no surprise that our cognitive processes favor the simple over the complex. And even when we consciously engage System 2 thinking, we may “overthink” a situation and still make a poor decision.

Bias often occurs when we let our preconceptions influence our decisions, which is the realm of System 1 thought. That’s not to say that System 2 thinking can’t also be biased, but the more we think about things, the better the chance that we make a rational decision. It’s easier to mischaracterize a situation if we don’t think deeply about it first.

As for System 2 thinking, we simply can’t make all, or even very many, of our decisions by engaging our intellect. There isn’t enough time, and it takes too much energy. And even if we could, we may overanalyze situations and make errors in that way.

There is also another, more insidious reason why we exhibit biases in analyzing situations and making decisions. That is that we have yet another bias – we believe that we make better decisions than those around us. In other words, we are biased that we believe we have fewer biases than the next person!

Are we stuck with our biases, forever consigned to not make the best decisions in our lives? Well, we won’t eliminate bias from our lives, but by understanding how and why it happens, we can reduce biased decisions, and make better decisions in general. We have to understand how we make decisions (gut choices are usually biased), and recognize situations where we have made poor decisions in the past.

It’s asking a lot of a person to acknowledge poor decisions, and to remember those circumstances in the future. But the starting point to doing so is to understand the origin of biases.

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