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Of Fossil Fuels and Climate Change March 15, 2015

Posted by Peter Varhol in Technology and Culture.
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I am not an energy or climate expert by any means. I guess I would call myself a reasonably intelligent layman with good education and experience in the scientific method and interpreting experimental results.

I’ll start with a couple of blanket statements. The Earth is probably undergoing climate change, and if so, it is likely at least partially the result of greenhouse gases. Notice that I express likelihoods, or possibilities, not definitive statements. No serious scientist, under just about any circumstances, would make flat and absolute statements about an ongoing research area, especially one as complex as this. Insofar as we may hear such statements, even from people who have scientific credentials, we should run away from them.

Second, it’s not at all clear that climate change is a bad thing. The world around us is not static, and if we expect things to remain as they are, we are deluding ourselves. We have had two documented “mini”-Ice Ages over the past millennium, and those could clearly not be ascribed to human industrial intervention. After all, the Vikings were able to grow crops in southern Greenland until a cooling of the climate in the twelfth century led them to abandon not only Greenland, but likely also Labrador and certainly Newfoundland.

In a longer sense, we may still be in an Ice Age that began over two million years ago.

If we are in the process of warming, it may be a part of the natural, well, circle of life. It is probably helped along by the trapping of warming greenhouse gasses, but it may or may not be unusual in the life scale of the planet.

But to think that we may draw a conclusion based on a hundred years of data may be intriguing, and may result in poorly thought out conclusions and remedies, despite the sensationalist (and entertaining) movies to the contrary.

And I know there are winners and losers in this process. On the positive side, we may be able to grow tropical crops farther north in the Temperate Zone, ultimately being able to feed more of the planet. On the negative side, countries such as Tuvalu may ultimately be mostly flooded by a rise in sea level. While I feel for the 11,000 people in Tuvalu, I may feel more for the greater number of people we are able to feed.

All that said, I liked this article on the necessity of fossil fuels in the weekend Wall Street Journal. While it represents a biased point of view, it is likely no more biased than an opposing point of view.

It’s a good thing that we are looking toward using energy that doesn’t burn fossil fuels. But let’s not delude ourselves into believing that climate change won’t happen anyway; it’s simply the way massive complex systems work.  We called it catastrophe theory in the 1970s; now it goes by other names.

I recognize that others may disagree with my statements, and perhaps stridently. And I certainly agree that we should continue to explore renewable sources of energy (even if they are not renewable over a sufficiently long time scale). But this is a more difficult question than the popular media has been asking over the course of the last decade or so.

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